Uncommitted is Overrated
The Biden loss handwringing has begun.
Just last week, I got into my first 2024 Election tussle with my friend and liberal ‘bro.
Here’s how it came down:
Liberal ‘bro (LB): I just don’t understand it.
Me: What don’t you understand?
LB: Why black men don’t support Biden.
Me: Where did you hear that?
LB: I read it. Biden has low approval with young black men. With Hispanic men. I don’t get it. And now this uncommitted movement in Michigan. Why are they doing this?
Me: I don’t understand. What are they doing?
LB: Not getting behind Biden. He needs their vote; why don’t they say they are going to vote for him? Don’t they know that not voting for Joe will get Trump elected?
Me (sarcastically): They are probably asking themselves what has Biden done for me.
LB: Can’t they see that they have to get behind Biden or Trump will win?
Me (angrily): Oh, I get it. They are convinced — and I feel that — Biden doesn’t have their back — and now you are guilt-tripping them?
Stony silence.
Why is it that the media is short listing Trump’s primary successes despite the fact that Republican turnout for Trump is down (1), and, as if on cue, the media is misrepresenting the “uncommitted” protest vote in Michigan?
Consider the sub text: why is Trump given a pass and Biden given a shake of the head? Why are we not handwringing over the future of democracy, preferring instead to cozy up to the worn out bromides of Biden’s age and black/brown voter indifference?
Our ageism and racism are showing. So is our privilege: aren’t we the ones who own insouciance?
How dare they!
Consider that at this stage in the campaign, the misalignment of primary voting results and general election outcomes could not be more stark.
Iowa: 14.4% of Republican voters participated in the Caucus
New Hampshire: over 320K participated in the primaries
South Carolina: 23% participated in the primaries
The upshot is that though Trump has edged past contenders, his numbers show a flailing campaign. Media shifts attention to the Trump contenders. Their flailing campaigns make a good story for wannabe Cassandra’s, but the reporting masks the other story:
Is anyone out there really interested?
Apparently, not. Even Trump can be ‘less interested,’ consumed as he is by courtroom appearances and his post-court appearance whining.
So embarrassing would be these results if it were not for the fact that these are ‘winner takes all’ delegate states, meaning whomever wins the primary, in effect, gets all the delegates to the Republican State and National Conventions. (2)
Consider a yawning disconnect between primary results and general election outcomes. Not the blue wave of 2022, but the blue yawn of 2024.
How about Michigan? A lot of angst and movement is being reported in advance of Tuesday’s Michigan primary:
An Arab uprising!
A message from Dearborn to Biden to clean up his act with Bibi. Recall that like the IDF, American intelligence also underestimated the training and preparation of a Hamas assault. The infamous Bibi-Biden tarmac bear hug says it all. The less space between Biden and Bibi’s War, the tighter is the space between Biden and Trump in the pre-general election run-up. A game of primary political chicken is underway in Michigan.
Consider another disconnect: the damage an uncommitted ‘vote’ will cause Biden in Michigan is overrated. America’s one-size-fits -all cultural misogyny is in play: how dare those Arab communities and student lefties throw dust in Biden’s face! But look a little closer and the numbers expose “primary fever”: these folks just bought precious free air time! Isn’t this how democracy is supposed to work? As former Congressman and ‘uncommitted’ supporter Andy Levin points out, the protest vote will make Biden stronger. (3)
What’s really underrated and under-reported by the media are the “Third Party” players, those campaigns which pick and choose state primaries and seek a spot on the general election ballot. Their presence during this election cycle is a true fault-line for Biden and company in that the Electoral College is the GOP’s to lose. (4) There’s that resolute ‘winner takes all’ vote douser again!
A third party candidate precludes Biden’s strategy of mining the independents: a third party candidate offers an independent alternative. In effect — though they will not admit it — third party candidates are running not so much on a platform, as they are running against incumbency. Forget taking away votes from anybody; third party candidates pose an advantage to the incumbent opposition.
Add to this the observation that, Trump, brilliantly, has not leveraged his accomplishments as former President. In fact his followers do not see candidate Trump as former anything. He is the real and current President. Hence, he manages to avoid the “curse of incumbency.” He remains the outlier, the wake-up call, the “make Trump great again.”
The ‘happening.’
Who remembers Trump’s mismanagement of COVID?
Of the announced “third party Presidential candidates” — Cornel West, Marianne Williamson (who has retired from and returned to the campaign), Dean Philips, Jill Stein, Robert Kennedy, Jr. — Williamson and Philips have entered Democratic primaries. West has announced that his “Justice for All” party will be on the ballot in numerous states.
And then there is the No Labels party. “Party” is a misnomer. No Labels is more a state of mind, a made-up refuge. The idea behind the “No Labels” Party is to create a platform for those who “can’t position my (their) vote with either party.” No need to keep them out in the cold.
“Where are you welcome? Feeling politically homeless? Tired of the extremes on the left and the right? Looking for common sense solutions for all of American problems?” — About Us, nolabels.org
What are they up to? Dusted off 2000 VP Candidate Joe Lieberman pitching gravitas? Where are they getting funds… anonymous Silicon Valley types…Cayman Island accounts? Is this a 2000 Nader repeat? Are these folks a distraction or a threat?
Or a political self-neutering? (5)
Nosing 100,000 votes and a delegate (15% of total), Uncommitted, this election cycle — they were on the ballot in 2020 Michigan primary — has charmed and threatened the erstwhile Biden campaign agendas, a notable achievement.
Michelle Goldberg, New York Times Opinion Writer, and a left of center ideological itch-waiting-to-be-scratched, summed up the Michigan primary imbroglio:
“Given how catastrophic another Trump term would be — including in Israel where the far right fantasizes about his return — I find people who threaten to withold their votes from Biden maddening. But if Democrats want them to come around, listening to them will be more effective than lecturing them.” (6)
Voting is a duty. Don’t make it into an obligation.
February 27, updated February 28
Notes
1- Robert Reich, “Less than 60 per cent of the vote in South Carolina? Sheesh. Trump continues to do poorly in Republican caucuses and primaries,” February 26, substack.com
2- “Grand Old Primaries,” December 10, 2007, fairvote.org
3- Michelle Goldberg, “Biden Is in Danger of Losing Michigan and, With It, the Whole Election,” February 23, The New York Times
4-Ezra Klein, 538
5- Greg Sargent, “How ‘No Labels Spoiler Bid Suddenly Entered Full Meltdown Mode,” February 23, The New Republic
6- Michelle Goldberg, op. cit.
