Member-only story
Confirmation Bias and Opinion Polls
Opinion polls have meaning for those who subscribe to them, particularly for those who attempt to track political momentum.
What is to be learned from political opinion polls, the ones which ask, “do you approve of the job the President is doing?” Or “will you change whom you are voting for in the next election?” The closest response to these questions attempting common wisdom is the above statement, which correlates with ‘my gut feeling’ that polls are instructive for those who set about to change public opinion, for those whose cognitive assessment presumably will be changed by public opinion.
The visual image of lemmings running off a cliff comes to mind.
Consider this ‘historic moment’ from a voter’s stature in the 2024 election:
Only once before have two former Presidents declared their candidacy (1).
Never before has a self-proclaimed tyrant asked for support, and received it from one of the two major political parties in the US.
Never before have voters been presented with two of the oldest candidates running for President.
Sound complicated?
Exactly.
Consider this absence of context when an opinion pollster asks for your ‘opinion.’ One is prompted to answer as if one is…
